By Yeshayah Allis
We’re about to enter week 4 of the NFL season, and although the Dolphins aren’t the only 0-3 team in the league, they do seem to be the worst. That’s not bad news for Dolphins fans, though, as many projected them to be the worst, and these projections combined with their play and record suggest they are the most likely candidate to get the 1st overall pick of the 2027 NFL draft. The tank is officially on in Miami, which leaves them with a lot of flexibility/options this coming offseason that I want to discuss.
Assuming they finish with the worst record in the league, the first option for them is to draft a quarterback with the #1 pick. Arch Manning is the projected #1 quarterback in the draft, so he’s definitely Plan A. It’s for this reason that as I’ve been watching the Texas Longhorns play, I jokingly refer to him as “Future Dolphins QB Arch Manning,” although I seem to be the only one who finds that funny.
If the Dolphins GM Jon-Eric Sullivan chooses Plan A, then the team will be in place to start winning within the next few years for two reasons:
- They are the youngest team in the league.
- Malik Willis is on a three year deal that ends after the 2028 season.
If you’ve watched any of their games this year, you’ll know that they have a league leading 13 rookies on the roster, one of which being former Alabama offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor. They drafted him with the 11th overall pick this year, and if they choose to go after Arch Manning, he should be the starting left tackle (LT). A similar strategy took place 9 years ago when the Bills drafted LT Dion Dawkins in 2017 and proceeded to draft Josh Allen as their QB in 2018.
With this in mind, we now look at Malik WiIlis, who just got signed this offseason to a three year, $67.5 million contract. Willis has been playing very well in my opinion despite the box scores and record thus far, and the plan for him is to continue being the Miami starter in 2027 and Manning would either play the final few games of the year or become the starter in 2028. It’s also possible Manning wouldn’t be the starter until 2029, if Willis continues to play well. After all, Jordan Love sat for three years behind Aaron Rodgers, so there is a precedent for 1st round quarterbacks to sit and learn. The Dolphins drafting Arch Manning will set them up for success in the immediate future, and is a plan that allows them to improve year by year through the end of the 2020s.
Now, there is a possibility that the Dolphins front office and coaching staff are so impressed by Willis this year that they instead decide to build around him as their long term quarterback. If this is the case, I present to you plan B: trade down.
It’s very likely that Willis will continue to play well, and the Dolphins continue to be the worst team in the league. If so, the #1 pick is worth a fortune in a trade. We’ve seen past trades for the #1 pick that comes at great cost for the team that moves up, but this year, it might be especially valuable. There’s potentially five 1st round quarterbacks in the 2027 draft as well as a generational wide receiver prospect in Jeremiah Smith. On top of that, there’s several highly touted defenders, such as Colin Simmons, Dylan Stewart, and Leonard Moore. It’s a very good draft class, and every quarterback needy team wants to have their pick of the litter.
Typically, the 1st overall pick gets traded for three 1st rounders. The Jets have three 1st rounders this year, but they probably won’t have to trade all three. Here’s a hypothetical Jets-Dolphins trade:
| Jets Receive | Dolphins Receive |
| #1 Pick | 2 of 3 Jets picks and a late round pick swap |
For example, the Jets trade away pick numbers 4 and 14 (hypothetically), and the Dolphins move from a late 5th round pick to an early 5th round pick. This would give the Dolphins room to draft blue chip position players around Willis, and the Jets can keep two 1st round picks. Obviously, this trade changes if the Jets have the 2nd overall pick versus if they have only first round picks in the 20s, but the idea is still the same.
Outside of the draft, the Dolphins will have a lot of cap space to work with. As of right now, they will have $96 million in cap space next offseason because of their decision to deal with their dead cap this year (smartly). I’ve already mentioned that next year’s draft is loaded with talent, but next year’s free agency might be even more exciting.
The free agents available are as follows:
- Puka Nacua
- George Pickens
- Joey Porter Jr.
- Kobie Turner
- Byron Young
- Steve Avila
- Parker Washington
- Josh Downs
- Quinton Nelson
- Tucker Kraft
- Brian Branch
- Sam LaPorta
What makes this group special is that most of them are pursuing their second contract, which is typically the most expensive one due to their youth. Since the Dolphins have cap space, they have the ability to bypass the typical route of drafting and developing a player and can instead sign a fully developed, young starter. Usually, players of this caliber get re-signed by their current team, but many of these players won’t be for a very important reason; they play for the Rams. Specifically, Puka Nacua, Kobie Turner, Byron Young, and Steve Avila are all currently on the Rams and pursuing their second contract. Due to cap limitations, the Rams won’t be able to re-sign all of them, which allows an opportunity for Miami to step in.
Outside of the Rams free agents, some others might be available for independent reasons. Joey Porter Jr. may be available because the Steelers already have the highest paid defense in the league. Brian Branch and Sam LaPorta both play for Detroit, so that is two big contracts for the Lions to pay. George Pickens may not re-sign because of off the field personality concerns, as well as the Cowboys already having the third highest paid offense in the league. There is a lot of talent in free agency next year, and many of these players will be available for the Dolphins.
The future is bright in Miami, and yes, they are bad now, but being bad gives them valuable resources to rebuild. Malik Willis’s play for the rest of the year will determine whether they use their 1st rounder on a quarterback or decide to build around him, and with the state of free agency combined with the natural improvement of their current young players, they have the ability to turn this team around in one offseason.
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