The Front Office Blog

By Yeshayah Allis

How valuable is each NFL draft pick? To answer this, I made three charts that show the probability that each NFL pick will become successful. The first chart is if the player becomes a starter for 5 years or more, the second chart is if the player becomes a Pro-Bowler, and the third chart is if the player becomes a first team All Pro.

How to Read it

The first pick, for example, has a 20.76% chance of becoming a 1st Team All-Pro player, a 43.15% chance of becoming a Pro-Bowler, and a 62.32% chance of becoming the starter at their position for 5 seasons or more.

How it was Created

NFL draft data from 2000 to 2018 was used. Each player that had received a 1st Team All Pro, Pro-Bowl, or was the primary starter for 5 seasons were all listed as 1 in the spreadsheet, and those who had not were listed as 0 in the spreadsheet. Then, in Minitab, I fit a binary logistic regression model for each of the three levels of player.

How it can be used

These models allow answers to very specific questions, such as “What’s the probability that one of our picks become long term starters?” or “What is the probability that two of our picks become Pro-Bowlers?” Also, in pick trades, the probabilities of the picks being sent versus the picks being received can be analyzed. 

For example, in the 2026 NFL Draft, Philadelphia traded up with Dallas to select Makai Lemon with the 20th overall pick. To move up three spots, the Eagles sent picks 23, 114, and 137 to the Cowboys. Based on the draft probability model, those three picks carried a 66.94% chance of producing at least one five-year starter, while the 20th overall pick had only a 54.29% chance. In other words, Philadelphia gave up 12.65 percentage points of expected value according to the model.

This type of result is common. Teams that trade up almost always surrender more draft value than they receive because they are paying a premium to secure a specific player. However, probability models evaluate draft picks in the aggregate and cannot account for individual prospect evaluations. In this case, the Eagles viewed Makai Lemon as a significantly better prospect than the next wide receiver selected, KC Concepcion, making the additional cost worthwhile from their perspective.

Each Pick’s Value

Pick	1st Team All-Pro	Pro-Bowl	5 Year Starter
1	20.76%	43.15%	62.32%
2	20.44%	42.72%	61.91%
3	20.12%	42.30%	61.50%
4	19.81%	41.88%	61.08%
5	19.50%	41.45%	60.67%
6	19.19%	41.03%	60.25%
7	18.89%	40.61%	59.83%
8	18.59%	40.20%	59.42%
9	18.30%	39.78%	58.99%
10	18.01%	39.36%	58.57%
11	17.72%	38.95%	58.15%
12	17.43%	38.54%	57.73%
13	17.15%	38.13%	57.30%
14	16.88%	37.72%	56.87%
15	16.60%	37.31%	56.45%
16	16.33%	36.91%	56.02%
17	16.07%	36.50%	55.59%
18	15.81%	36.10%	55.16%
19	15.55%	35.70%	54.73%
20	15.29%	35.30%	54.29%
21	15.04%	34.91%	53.86%
22	14.79%	34.51%	53.43%
23	14.54%	34.12%	52.99%
24	14.30%	33.73%	52.56%
25	14.06%	33.35%	52.13%
26	13.83%	32.96%	51.69%
27	13.60%	32.58%	51.26%
28	13.37%	32.20%	50.82%
29	13.14%	31.82%	50.39%
30	12.92%	31.45%	49.95%
31	12.70%	31.07%	49.51%
32	12.49%	30.70%	49.08%
33	12.27%	30.33%	48.64%
34	12.06%	29.97%	48.21%
35	11.86%	29.61%	47.77%
36	11.65%	29.24%	47.34%
37	11.45%	28.89%	46.91%
38	11.26%	28.53%	46.47%
39	11.06%	28.18%	46.04%
40	10.87%	27.83%	45.61%
41	10.68%	27.48%	45.18%
42	10.50%	27.14%	44.74%
43	10.31%	26.79%	44.31%
44	10.13%	26.45%	43.88%
45	9.96%	26.12%	43.46%
46	9.78%	25.78%	43.03%
47	9.61%	25.45%	42.60%
48	9.44%	25.13%	42.18%
49	9.28%	24.80%	41.75%
50	9.11%	24.48%	41.33%
51	8.95%	24.16%	40.91%
52	8.79%	23.84%	40.49%
53	8.64%	23.53%	40.07%
54	8.48%	23.22%	39.65%
55	8.33%	22.91%	39.24%
56	8.18%	22.60%	38.82%
57	8.04%	22.30%	38.41%
58	7.89%	22.00%	38.00%
59	7.75%	21.71%	37.59%
60	7.61%	21.41%	37.18%
61	7.48%	21.12%	36.77%
62	7.34%	20.83%	36.37%
63	7.21%	20.55%	35.97%
64	7.08%	20.27%	35.57%
65	6.95%	19.99%	35.17%
66	6.83%	19.71%	34.77%
67	6.70%	19.44%	34.38%
68	6.58%	19.17%	33.99%
69	6.46%	18.90%	33.60%
70	6.34%	18.63%	33.21%
71	6.23%	18.37%	32.83%
72	6.12%	18.11%	32.44%
73	6.00%	17.86%	32.06%
74	5.89%	17.60%	31.68%
75	5.79%	17.35%	31.31%
76	5.68%	17.11%	30.93%
77	5.58%	16.86%	30.56%
78	5.47%	16.62%	30.20%
79	5.37%	16.38%	29.83%
80	5.27%	16.14%	29.47%
81	5.18%	15.91%	29.11%
82	5.08%	15.68%	28.75%
83	4.99%	15.45%	28.39%
84	4.90%	15.23%	28.04%
85	4.81%	15.00%	27.69%
86	4.72%	14.78%	27.34%
87	4.63%	14.56%	27.00%
88	4.54%	14.35%	26.66%
89	4.46%	14.14%	26.32%
90	4.38%	13.93%	25.98%
91	4.30%	13.72%	25.65%
92	4.22%	13.52%	25.32%
93	4.14%	13.32%	24.99%
94	4.06%	13.12%	24.66%
95	3.98%	12.92%	24.34%
96	3.91%	12.73%	24.02%
97	3.84%	12.53%	23.70%
98	3.77%	12.34%	23.39%
99	3.70%	12.16%	23.08%
100	3.63%	11.97%	22.77%
101	3.56%	11.79%	22.47%
102	3.49%	11.61%	22.17%
103	3.43%	11.44%	21.87%
104	3.36%	11.26%	21.57%
105	3.30%	11.09%	21.28%
106	3.24%	10.92%	20.99%
107	3.18%	10.75%	20.70%
108	3.12%	10.59%	20.42%
109	3.06%	10.42%	20.13%
110	3.00%	10.26%	19.86%
111	2.94%	10.10%	19.58%
112	2.89%	9.95%	19.31%
113	2.83%	9.79%	19.04%
114	2.78%	9.64%	18.77%
115	2.73%	9.49%	18.51%
116	2.68%	9.34%	18.24%
117	2.63%	9.19%	17.99%
118	2.58%	9.05%	17.73%
119	2.53%	8.91%	17.48%
120	2.48%	8.77%	17.23%
121	2.43%	8.63%	16.98%
122	2.39%	8.49%	16.74%
123	2.34%	8.36%	16.50%
124	2.30%	8.23%	16.26%
125	2.25%	8.10%	16.02%
126	2.21%	7.97%	15.79%
127	2.17%	7.84%	15.56%
128	2.13%	7.72%	15.33%
129	2.09%	7.60%	15.11%
130	2.05%	7.48%	14.88%
131	2.01%	7.36%	14.66%
132	1.97%	7.24%	14.45%
133	1.93%	7.12%	14.23%
134	1.90%	7.01%	14.02%
135	1.86%	6.90%	13.81%
136	1.82%	6.79%	13.61%
137	1.79%	6.68%	13.40%
138	1.76%	6.57%	13.20%
139	1.72%	6.46%	13.01%
140	1.69%	6.36%	12.81%
141	1.66%	6.26%	12.62%
142	1.63%	6.16%	12.43%
143	1.59%	6.06%	12.24%
144	1.56%	5.96%	12.05%
145	1.53%	5.86%	11.87%
146	1.50%	5.77%	11.69%
147	1.48%	5.67%	11.51%
148	1.45%	5.58%	11.33%
149	1.42%	5.49%	11.16%
150	1.39%	5.40%	10.99%
151	1.37%	5.31%	10.82%
152	1.34%	5.23%	10.65%
153	1.31%	5.14%	10.49%
154	1.29%	5.06%	10.32%
155	1.26%	4.97%	10.16%
156	1.24%	4.89%	10.01%
157	1.22%	4.81%	9.85%
158	1.19%	4.73%	9.70%
159	1.17%	4.66%	9.55%
160	1.15%	4.58%	9.40%
161	1.13%	4.50%	9.25%
162	1.10%	4.43%	9.10%
163	1.08%	4.36%	8.96%
164	1.06%	4.28%	8.82%
165	1.04%	4.21%	8.68%
166	1.02%	4.14%	8.54%
167	1.00%	4.08%	8.41%
168	0.98%	4.01%	8.28%
169	0.96%	3.94%	8.14%
170	0.95%	3.88%	8.01%
171	0.93%	3.81%	7.89%
172	0.91%	3.75%	7.76%
173	0.89%	3.69%	7.64%
174	0.87%	3.63%	7.52%
175	0.86%	3.57%	7.40%
176	0.84%	3.51%	7.28%
177	0.83%	3.45%	7.16%
178	0.81%	3.39%	7.05%
179	0.79%	3.34%	6.93%
180	0.78%	3.28%	6.82%
181	0.76%	3.22%	6.71%
182	0.75%	3.17%	6.60%
183	0.73%	3.12%	6.50%
184	0.72%	3.07%	6.39%
185	0.71%	3.02%	6.29%
186	0.69%	2.96%	6.19%
187	0.68%	2.92%	6.09%
188	0.67%	2.87%	5.99%
189	0.65%	2.82%	5.89%
190	0.64%	2.77%	5.79%
191	0.63%	2.72%	5.70%
192	0.62%	2.68%	5.61%
193	0.60%	2.63%	5.51%
194	0.59%	2.59%	5.42%
195	0.58%	2.55%	5.34%
196	0.57%	2.50%	5.25%
197	0.56%	2.46%	5.16%
198	0.55%	2.42%	5.08%
199	0.54%	2.38%	5.00%
200	0.53%	2.34%	4.91%
201	0.52%	2.30%	4.83%
202	0.51%	2.26%	4.75%
203	0.50%	2.22%	4.67%
204	0.49%	2.19%	4.60%
205	0.48%	2.15%	4.52%
206	0.47%	2.11%	4.45%
207	0.46%	2.08%	4.37%
208	0.45%	2.04%	4.30%
209	0.44%	2.01%	4.23%
210	0.43%	1.97%	4.16%
211	0.43%	1.94%	4.09%
212	0.42%	1.91%	4.02%
213	0.41%	1.88%	3.96%
214	0.40%	1.84%	3.89%
215	0.39%	1.81%	3.83%
216	0.39%	1.78%	3.76%
217	0.38%	1.75%	3.70%
218	0.37%	1.72%	3.64%
219	0.36%	1.69%	3.58%
220	0.36%	1.66%	3.52%
221	0.35%	1.64%	3.46%
222	0.34%	1.61%	3.40%
223	0.34%	1.58%	3.35%
224	0.33%	1.55%	3.29%
225	0.32%	1.53%	3.23%
226	0.32%	1.50%	3.18%
227	0.31%	1.48%	3.13%
228	0.31%	1.45%	3.08%
229	0.30%	1.43%	3.02%
230	0.29%	1.40%	2.97%
231	0.29%	1.38%	2.92%
232	0.28%	1.36%	2.87%
233	0.28%	1.33%	2.83%
234	0.27%	1.31%	2.78%
235	0.27%	1.29%	2.73%
236	0.26%	1.27%	2.69%
237	0.26%	1.24%	2.64%
238	0.25%	1.22%	2.60%
239	0.25%	1.20%	2.55%
240	0.24%	1.18%	2.51%
241	0.24%	1.16%	2.47%
242	0.23%	1.14%	2.43%
243	0.23%	1.12%	2.39%
244	0.22%	1.10%	2.34%
245	0.22%	1.08%	2.31%
246	0.21%	1.07%	2.27%
247	0.21%	1.05%	2.23%
248	0.21%	1.03%	2.19%
249	0.20%	1.01%	2.15%
250	0.20%	1.00%	2.12%
251	0.19%	0.98%	2.08%
252	0.19%	0.96%	2.05%
253	0.19%	0.95%	2.01%
254	0.18%	0.93%	1.98%
255	0.18%	0.91%	1.94%
256	0.18%	0.90%	1.91%
257	0.17%	0.88%	1.88%
258	0.17%	0.87%	1.85%
259	0.17%	0.85%	1.82%
260	0.16%	0.84%	1.78%